If you are in the Strategic Affairs team of PRC Foreign Ministry, you could see a once in a century opportunity to tamper with the world order.

You know the only certainty is the uncertainty. You want to test limits of uncertainty and orientation change that is enveloping the world. That help you understand the latitude available in the decades to come.

The article is about the ‘test skirmishes’ that PRC could run in the next 2 years to understand their relative position in the new world, with respect to their aspirations and claims.

On PRC

Meanwhile, PRC is now stronger with the well inducted 5th generation fighters (and an impending but delayed 6th), drones and a world leading cyber-warfare team. They have to leverage all these new AI capabilities in the warfield one day!

They will have to test their limits now, and see what strategic advantage they can get in this era characterised by ‘paradigm changing’ foreign policy. This can also be positioned as a ‘national cause’ and the ‘beginning of the next great awakening’.

As the world is focused on the Russia-Ukraine corridor, PRC might have to send out ‘test skirmishes’ to gauge the responses of the powers involved. This can be done in three different corridors:

1.⁠ Push their luck on Taiwan:

⁠It will be enormously difficult to capture Taiwan by force – but PRC could try to establish a new normal in terms of its presence in the area.

Try they have to, else they will lost a great window of opportunity. In April or October when the Taiwan Strait is not choppy, they could increase the naval deployments in the area, and have purposeful run ins with the Taiwanese coast cards as a test skirmish. They could have more aircraft strafing the airspace. The response to these actions from US, Australia and Taiwan will provide a great inputs to the boffins in the China Foreign Office for any future wars.

With satellite imagery, you cannot pull off a D-Day surprise today. The ’45 attack on the continent required 1M troops to go in a 2 week window. Taiwan | Taipei is a mountainous fort with no beach heads to land.

https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan

2.⁠ Establish further legitimacy in South China Sea ⁠
The UN as an institution is weakened by Trump. This is a great benefit for PRC in the South China Sea. The South China Sea is rich with billions of barrels of Petroleum and trillions of cubic feet of Natural Gas. There have been disputes in the UN and the UN has always ruled in favour of Philippines, but the institution itself is weakened.

What will be the objectives of China in South China Sea. What will they do to assert their claim? They might get more assertive on the islands that they have recovered, and mount attack on commercial and navy vessels with Philippines flag. They might even send out a few, visible oil survey vessels. This is a test to find if the new US dispensation is committed to the US-Phil Mutual Defence Treaty.

China is the ancient master of nomenclature and symbolism. Far before Trump thought of the ‘Gulf of America’, PRC calls the ‘West Philippine Sea’ as ‘South China Sea’, and has been steadily building airbases in the middle of the ocean.

If they want to explore the fringe of their influence, they could do power projection in the Pacific, move some vessels down south near Australia. They do not dare go East, as they will encounter the US influence in Guam. They are not in the business of testing direct US responses – they might want to check the indirect US responses to their territorial actions.

3. Needle the Chicken’s Neck
⁠⁠Another test skirmish could be launched from the Doklam area to ‘needle the chicken neck’ of India, the 20km corridor that connects the 7 sisters states in the East to the mainland. No full fledged war, no Galwan valley hand to hand combat, but classic old mechanisms. Increased patrolling, simple shelling, threatening villagers, higher surveillance – can all figure out how India and the world will look at PRC/PLA’s activity in the area.

The Chicken Neck Area

It is the Trumpian era, and a time for ‘deal making’. PRC is also getting their ‘deals’ done with Bhutan with some diplomatic coercion. This will place PLA at ~60km from the Chicken’s neck.

Diversionary Skirmishes on India’s West

For this, they might create diversionary skirmishes in the Eastern border of India with Pakistan – now that Pakistan is dreaming spare parts from Trump for their F16s through a ‘deal’, and are seeking more F16 supply. Will Trump’s US provide the spares? Will they provide one more squadron, now that Pakistan do not have the alibi of being a ‘major non-NATO Ally’, without the raison d’etre of Afghanistan. That will be an interesting question to watch, and this is a direct way in which America could fuel China’s quest.
Anyways, Pakistan is also looking at acquiring the J35 fifth generation aircraft in 2026, that will drive a closer alignment.

Master of alignment: F16s and JF-17 Thunders

Pakistan has been a master of alignment. Allocation of F16s from US and talk about J35 from China.
These could isolate India, and highlight its non-aligned nature.

This will test the India-Russia weapon supply chain. To PRC it will answer the question, which relationship is stronger – one driven by communist ideology (PRC-Russia) or one bound by history (India-Russia)? Will Russia have the luxury to hyphenate the relationships as equal? China could test this through this skirmish. This will also test Pakistan’s gumption in case of a region wide war.

Study the response

Based on the response of the US, UN, the EU and Australia in these areas, they might have further plan to focus on one or more of these objectives.

This has implication for EU (Russia looking at Maldova for example) and their overall presence and influence as a group of nations. Of course it impacts Taiwan, Philippines, and India.

We live in interesting times.