The IT Industry’s Laschamp Excursion

It is intuitive. When the change happens at the very core of an eco-system, the impact of the change is felt in far flung places. Let us look one such massive change that happened in the very core of Mother Earth.

What if the earth’s core changed polarity? What if the magnetic north pole and south pole changed places?

What happens if the molten ferric magma inside the 5000 km core of the earth churns like liqueur in a bad stomach and spurts?

It happened 42K years back and it is documented as the Laschamps Excursion. (The change wasn’t strong, like a mild hangover in 2K years it reversed. This is also called as Adam’s Event, after the best-known hitchhiker in this galaxy).

The period during the change was cataclysmic

• Earth’s molten core churned around, changing polarity
• This caused changes in the structure of the mantle and the crust.
• Ice sheets surged to a glacial maxima
• Wind belts shifted
• There was more Carbon 14 in the air, the ozone layer depleted
• Extreme Borealis display lighted up the skies
• UV rays made the southern earth uninhabitable
• Big mammals in the south became extinct
• It looked like the end of days

Social Media saved humanity

Due to the change in the earth’s core’s polarity during Laschamps Excursion in 40KBC, every layer of the earth’s eco-system was altered. Earth was a wretched place with perma-frost, demonic aurora displays and killer UV rays. Get exposed and die.  

Amidst such change, some species emerged stronger. Homo Sapiens won the evolutionary battle against the Neandertals during this period.

Our favourite Sapiens, were social. They got together, hid in caves, shared responsibilities and cooperated. They also ran riot on cave art (Social Media 40K BC).

Neandertals weren’t so social – they didn’t cooperate with each other and perished.

So, cave art is the world’s first documented case of social media. Yes. Social Media saved humanity. Zuckerberg has been right all along.

Courtesy: Wikipedia |Low Ozone layer – Peak UV: Homo Sapiens hid inside caves during the Las Champs event and flamed the roof with art. Cave Art is the first documented instance of Social Media.

Computing core changing polarity

Just like the Laschamp’s event, the computing core is changing its polarity. Intel and the x86 platform are being upended by forces that were unleashed in 2007.

The polarity of the computing core is changing from x86 to ARM – especially if we define computing as the edge, not as the PC. We saw in the earlier notes that this was enabled by a trinity of forces –

• ARM with its lower power architecture & lower cost business model,
• TSMC – the manufacturing engine and
• Apple – the volume driver

The change is in the core, just like the Laschamps event. There will be earthquakes everywhere. Every layer of the industry will be inalterably altered.

To analyse layer by layer, let us look at a simplistic representation of the computing eco-system. Remember, this is like representing the earth as a globe – a massively simplified view.

With the new reality, every player will think Intel’s margin is their opportunity. They will throw their hook at it, drag back and check what sticks. It is game theory all over.

Every layer in the stack above will have to sharpen their smarts to maximize their game. Else they will be eaten by the competitors in their layer or by the other layers.

Let us look at the strategic possibilities – layer by layer, player by player.

Next: Written on Rosetta Stone 12: Strategic questions Intel will have confront